Assignment – Forecasting

 

1.      Thirteen students entered the OM program at Rollins College 2 years ago.  The following table indicates what each student scored on the high school SAT exam and their grad point averages (GPAs) after students were in the Rollins program for 2 years.  Is there a meaningful relationship between SAT scores and grades?  If a student scores a 350 on the SAT, what do you think his or her GPA will be?  What about a student who scores 800?

 

Student	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M
SAT	421	377	585	690	608	390	415	481	729	501	613	709	366
GPA	2.90	2.93	3.00	3.45	3.66	2.88	2.15	2.53	3.22	1.99	2.75	3.90	1.60

 

2.      As you can see in the following table, demand for hear transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years: 

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Heart Transplant Surgeries Performed	45	50	52	56	58	?

The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries.

a.      Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of 0.6 and then with one of 0.9 to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.

b.      Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4, 5, and 6.

c.      Use Linear Regression to forecast demand in years 1 through 6.

d.      With MAD as the criterion, which of the above four forecasts is best?

 

3. In the past, Melissa Bryant’s tire dealership sold an average of 1,000 radials each year.  In the past 2 years, 200 and 250, respectively, were sold in fall, 350 and 300 in winter, 150 and 165 in spring, and 300 and 285 in summer.  With a major expansion planned, Bryant projects sales next year to increase to 1,200 radials.  What will be the seasonally adjusted demand during each season?