NAU Ant 547 The Study of The Future
Bibliography
books & articles - partially annotated

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Forecasts

Bell, Daniel
1973 The Coming of Postindustrial Society. New York: Basic Books.

Business Week
1979 "The End of Industrial Society" Business Week # 2601:2-212, September 3.

Bowen, William
1979 "The Decade Ahead: Not So Bad If We Do Things Right" Fortune __(_):83-104.

Cetron, Marvin & Owen Davies
1991 Crystal Globe: The Haves and the Have-nots of the New World Order. New York: St. Martin's Press.
A set of global prognostications from Cetron's Forecasting International, Inc. foci - Europe, North America, The Pacific Rim, the Have Nots: The Middle East, Africa, Latin America, The Other Asia, and The New World Order. Appendixes: 90 Major Trends, Profiles 37 Countries That Point to the Future.

Cetron, Marvin and Thomas O'Toole
1982 Encounters with the Future: A Forecast of Life into the 21st Century. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company.

Ellul, Jacques
1964 "A Look at the Future" Chapt 6, 428-436, in Jacques Ellul The Technological Society New York: Vintage Books.

Gallup, George Jr.
1984 Forecast 2000. New York: Wm. Morrow & Co., Inc.
Sociological survey method applied to the issue of the future; elicits some of the typical American view as of 1983/4. Findings seem to be written from frequency analyses only; no evidence of any more sophisticated multi-variate analysis of the data base, if such was conducted, is reported here.

Garreau, Joel 1981 The Nine Nations of North America. New York: Avon Books.
Not strictly a forecast, but a perceptive description of the nine regional cultures of North American and the geographic lines along whicvh they might cleave.

Hawken, Paul, James Ogilvy, Peter Schwartz
1982 Seven Tomorrows: Toward A Voluntary History. New York:Bantam Books.
A family of scenarios developed from variations in a set of forecast variables; one of the best models of scenario construction.

Heppenheimer, T. A.
1977 Colonies in Space. New York: Warner Books.

Kedutat, Sippanondah
1990 The Middle Path for the Future of Thailand: Technology in Harmony with Culture and Environment. Chiang Mai, Thailand: Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University. (see also: Textor et al.)

Lamm, Governor Richard D.
1985 Megataumas: America at the Year 2000. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company.

McHale, John
1971 (1969) The Future of the Future. New York: Ballentine Books.

Moorecroft, Sheila
1993 Visions for the 21st Century. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers.
Collection of 21 descriptive and prescriptive forecasts generally with sociopolitical emphasis.

Naisbitt, John
1982 Megatrends. New York: Warner Books, Inc.
Ten grass roots, wholey optimistic trends into the 21st century; all inferable from cultural evolutionary theory. Proports to be the product of content analysis of 6,000 local and regional periodicals over several years.

O'Neill, Gerard K.
1981 2081: A Hopeful View of the Human Future. New York: Simon and Schuster.
1997 The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space. New York: William Morrow and Company, Inc.
1974 "The Colonization of Space" Physics Today __(__):32-40.

Riner, Reed D.
1989 "The Future of Garbage" Proceedings, National Solid Waste Management Symposium. Flagstaff: Cocopai Resource Conservation & Development Area, Inc.

Riner, Reed D. and Melvin K. Neville
1991 "Futures of Higher education: Past, Present & Future" Futurics, A Quarterly Journal of Futures Research 15(3&4):57-67.

Stine, G. Harry
1980 "The Space Enterprise. New York: Ace Books.
1975 "The Third Industrial Revolution" New York: G.P.Putnam's Sons.

Textor, Robert B. and Kurt Steiner et al.
1983 Projected Sociocultural Effects of the Microelectronic Revolution. Standord, CA: Stanford University Press.

TIME Magazine
1992 Beyond the Year 2000: What to Expect in The New Millennium. Special Issue. 140(20), Fall.

Toffler, Alvin
1990 Power Shift. New York: Bantam Books.
1980 The Third Wave. New York: Bantam Books.
1975 Ecospasm. New York: Bantam Books.
1970 Future Shock. New York: Bantam Books.
The author and books which, more than any others, have shaped the reading public's current image of the future.

Veselsky, Ernst Eugen, Editor
1976 Oesterreich 1985: 100 Fachleute analysieren unsere Zukunft. Wien: Verlag Orac.
Findings of ethnographic futures research method applied in Austria. (See also Textor & Steiner 1983 above).

Wager, W. Warren
1991 The Next Three Futures: Paradigms of Things to Come. NewYork: Praeger Publishers.
Historian of the future appraises futures studies from H. G. Wells to present, then developes three alternative futures: technoliberal, radiacal, and countercultural ideologies expressed in areans of "Earth", Wealth and Power, War and Peace, and Living.

Wallerstein, Immanuel
1980 "The future of the world-econonmy" pp 167-180 in T.K.Hopkins and I.Wallerstein, Eds. Processes of the World-System. Beverly Hills: Sage.

The Global System

Barney, Gerald O., Study Director
1980 The Global 2000 Report to the President of the United States: Entering the 21st Century. Volume I: The Summary Report. New York: Pergamon Press.

Carson, Rachel
1962 Silent Spring. New York: Houghten Mifflin Company.

Cole, H.S.D., Christopher Freeman, Marie Jahoda, and K.L.R.Pavitt
1973 Models of Doom: A Critique of 'The Limits to Growth'. New York: UNiverse Books.

Cole, Sam
1987 "Global Models: A review of recent developments" Futures __(_):403-430, August.

Commoner, Barry
1971 The Closing Circle: Nature, Man & Technology. Alfred A. Knopf, Inc.

Ehrlich, Paul R.
1968 The Population Bomb. New York: Ballentine Bookos, INc.

Ehrlich, Paul R, and Anne H. Erlich
1974 The End of Affluence: A Blueprint for Your Future. New York: Ballentine Books, Inc.

Heilbroner, Robert L.
19__ >The Human Prospect" (citation needed>

Laszlo, Ervin, et al.
1977 Goals for Mankind: A Report to The Club of Rome on the New Horizons of Global Community. New York: E.P.Dutton.

Meadows, Donella H., Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, William W. Behrens III
1972 The Limits to Growth: A Report to The Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books.

Mesarovic, Mihajlo & Eduard Pestel
1974 Mankind at the Turning Point: The Second Report to The Club of Rome. New York: E.P.Dutton and Company, Inc.

Odum, Howard T.
1971 Environment, Power, and Society. New York: Wiley-Interscience, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Odum, Howard T, and Elizabeth C. Odum
1976 Eneryg Basis for Man and nature. New York: McGraw-Hill, Book Company.

Polgar, Steven
1978 "The Possible and the Desirable: Population and Environmental Problems" 63-70 in Magoroh Maruyama and Arthur Harkins, editors, Cultures of the Future. The Hague: Mouton/ Aldine.

Schell, Jonathan
1982 The Fate of The Earth. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc.

Strobaugh, Robert and Daniel Yergin, eds
1979 Energy Future: Report of the Energy Project at the Harvard Business School. New York: Random Houes.

Wilden, Anthony
1978 "Ecosystems and Economic Systems" 101-124 in Magoroh Maruyama and Arthur Harkins, editors, Cultures of the Future. The Hague: Mouton/ Aldine.

World System Theories

Batra, Ravi
1988 The Great Depression of 1990: Has it already started coming true? New York : Dell Books (1985 Ravi batra). Distinctive example of a forecast unfulfilled.

Bergeson, Albert
1983 "Modeling Long Waves of Crisis in the World-System" Chapt 4, 73-91 in A. Bergeson, Editor, Crises in the World System. Vol 6 Political Economy of the World-System Annuals. Beverly Hills: Sage.
1981 "Long Economic Cycles and the Size of Industrial Enterprise" Chapt 9, 179-189, Ricahrd Rubinson, Editor, Dynamics of World Development. Vol 4 Political Economy of the World-System Annuals. Beverly Hills: Sage.
1980 "Cycles of Formal Colonial Rule" Chapt 5, 231-277 in A. Bergeson, Ed., Studies of the Modern World-System. New York: Academic Press.

Bergesen, A. and R. Schoenberg
1980 "Long waves of colonial expansion and contraction, 1415-1969" pp 231-277 in A. bergeson, Ed. Studies in the Modern World-System. New York: Academic Press.

Bottomore, T.B.
1966 "From the Ruling Class to the Power Elite" pp 28-47 in T.B.Bottomore Elites and Society ___: Penguin (1964 ___: Watts.)

Boulding, Kenneth
1972 "Towards a twenty-first century politics" The Colorado Quarterly 20(3):309-319, Winter.
1966 "The economics of the Coming Spaceship earth" 3-14 in Henry Jarrett, ed. Environmental Quality In A Growing Economy. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins Press.
1962 "After Civilization, What?" 3-14 in Richard Kostelanetz Ed. Beyond Right and left: Radical Thouyght for Our Times. New York: William Marrow and Company, Inc. (reprinted from Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 1962)

Dator, James A. "Beyond the Nation-State? Images of the Future of the International Political System" World Future Society Bulletin XV(6):5-14, Nov/Dec.

Gilpin, Robert
1987 The Political Economy of International Relations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Lewellen, Ted C.
1983 "Telectronics in the Wallersteinina World Capitalist System" Cultural Futures Research VIII(1):9-19; American Anthropological Association, Annual Meeting Nov 16-20, Chicago, IL.

Maruyama, Magoroh
New Economic Thinking: Morphogenetic causal loops and product adaptation strategy" Futures __(_):437-441(?), August.

Riner, Reed D.
1981 "The Supranational Network of Boards of Directors" Current Anrthropology 22(2):167-172.

Wolf, Alvin W.
1982 "Sociocultural Integration Above the Level of the State" Cultural Futures Research, VII(1):9-16.
1977 "The supranational organization of production: An evolutionalry perspective. Current Anthropology 18(_):615-35.

Education and Science Fiction

Cornish, Edward
1977 The Study of The Future: An Introduction to the Art and Science of Understanding and Shaping Tomorrow's Future. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society.

Didsbury, Howard F. Jr, Ed.
1979 Student Handbook for 'Study of the Future'. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society.

Dustan, Maryjane and Patricia W. Garlan
1970 Worlds in the Making: probes for students of the future. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc.

Fitch, Robert M. and Cordell M. Svengalis
Futures Unlimited: Teaching About Worlds to Come. Washington, DC: National Council for Social Studies.

Kauffman, Draper L. Jr.
1976 Teaching the Future: A Guide to Future-Oriented Education. Palm Springs, CA: ETC Publications.

Riner, Reed D.
1975 "Science Fiction and Anthropology: Fomr Contact to Colloquium" Science Fiction Research Association, Regional Meeting, Denver, CO.

Toffler, Alvin, Ed.
1974 Learning For Tomorrow: The Role of the Future in Education. New York: Random House - Vintage Books.
Sixteen essays review as many aspects of integration of the future into curricula in public schools, colleges and universities. Two+ decades later, it still the best book on teaching futures.

Tyzzer, Robert N. III
19__ "Science Fiction in the Anthropology Classroom" ____

Bibliographies and Reviews

Kilborn, Vicki
1991 "Perceptions of Time: A study of six books about the future" Flagstaff, AZ: Northern Arizona University.
Senior Honors paper comparing J.B.Bury's The Idea of Progress (1987, orig. 1920), R. Nisbet's History of the Idea of Progress (1980), T.J.Cottle and S.L.Klineberg's The Present of Things Future: Explorations of Time in Human Experience (1974), J.J.Corn, Editor Imagining Tomorrow: History, Technology and the American Future (1986), J.J.Corn and B.Horrigan's Yesterday's Tomorrows: Past Visions of the American Future, and J.Rifkin Time Wars: The Primary Conflict in Human History (1987)

Valero, Gloria
1992 "Annotations on Time and the Future" Flagstaff: Northern Arizona University.
Term paper for Ant547, provides annotations on extensive bibliography to Rifkin's Time Wars; 43pp.

Weiss, P.
1994 FUTURESCO: A UNESCO bibliographical bulletin of future-oriented literature; Culture. UNESCO.

Unclassified

Bohannan, Paul
1980 "You Can't Do Nothing" American Anthropologist 82(_):508-523.
1973 "Culture, Agression, And Where We Are Going" Social Education __(__):624-631, November.

Fleising, Usher
1986 "Nature, Culture and the Domestication of DNA" Cultural Futures Research __(_):__-__.

Gifford, James C.
1978 "The Prehistory of Homo sapiens: Touchstone for the Future" 71-100 in Magoroh Maruyama and Arthur Harkins, editors, Cultures of the Future. The Hague: Mouton/ Aldine.

Tax, Sol
1977 "Anthropology for the World of the Future: Thirteen Professions and Three Proposals" Human Organization 36(3):225-233, Fall.

Thompson, Stephen I.
1973 "Pioneer Colonization: a Cross-Cultural View. Addison-Wesley Module in Anthropology No. 33. Reading, MASS: Addison-Wesley Publiching Company, Inc.

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Reed D. Riner, Professor, Department of Anthropology
email: Reed.Riner@NAU.edu

last updated on 10 August 1997