Comprehensive

Fowels, Jib, Editor
1978 Handbook of Futures Research. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.
Fourty-one essays by leaders in the field: 3 history of futures research, 5 critiques of methods and practice, 12 introductions to specific methods, 18 forecasts, and 3 prospects for futures research. Getting dated but still a must for the practitioner.

Maruyama, Magoroh and Arthur M. Harkins, Editors
1978 Cultures of the Future. The Hague: Mouton Publishers.
Collection of 28 essays toward an anthropology about the future distributed under eight general headings : The Future as a New Dimension of Anthropology; Anthropological Insights for Social Policy: Western Views; Anthropological Insights for Social Policy: Third World Views; Conceptualization of the Future in Various Cultures; Anthropological Perspectives of Social Movements and Cultural Trends; Perceprion, Action Pesearch paradigm and Policy Design; Education for the Future; and Future Cultural Alternatives: Imaginative Uses of Anthropology ($81.25, out-of-print).

Tough, Allen
1991 Crucial Questions About the Future. Lanham, MD: University Press of America.
Wide-ranging answers to ten questions: What is most important of all? Why shuld we care about the next 40 years? Why do we act in the ways that hurt our future? What will our actual future turn out to be? Can it provide us with meaning and purpose? Is pessimism or optimism more appropriate? How can we achieve a satisfactory future? How can each person contribute? Why is it worth trying?

Epistomology

Bell, Wendell and Jeffrey Olick
1989 "An epistemology for the futures field: Problems and possibilities of prediction" Futures 21(2):115-135.

Bohannan, Paul
1984 "Some models for planning the future" Journal of Social and Biological Structures" 7:37-59.

Boulding, Kenneth
1956 The Image. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Seminal work in regard to the sociocultural roles of images. (Cf. Polak, The Image of the Future)

Fowels, Jib
1978 "The Problem of Values in Futures Research" 125-140 in Job Fowels, Editor, Handbook of Futures Research. Westpost, CT: Greenwood Press.

Henshel, Richard L.
1978 "Self-altering Predictions" 99-123 in Job Fowels, Editor, Handbook of Futures Research. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.

Hoos, Ida R.
1978 "Methodological Shortcomings in Futures Research" 53-65 in Job Fowels, Editor, Handbook of Futures Research. Westpost, CT: Greenwood Press.

Miles, Ian
1978 "The Ideologies of Futurists" 67-97, in Job Fowels, Editor, Handbook of Futures Research. Westpost, CT: Greenwood Press.

Polak, Fred L.
1973 The Image of the Future. translated and abridged by Elise Boulding; orig. in 2 Vol., (1961 New York: Oceana Publications.) San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Inc., Publishers.
A scholarly history of images of the future in Western history, and assessment of prospects for futures research.
1971 Prognostics: a science in the making surveys the future. Amsterdam: Elsevier Publishing Co.
Bad translation and worse editing, but worth the effort in persuing the lines of thought eveloped in Image.

Riner, Reed D.
1991 "Anthropology About the Future" Human Organization 50(3):297-311, Autumn.
1987 "Doing Futures Research - Anthropologically" Futures 19(3):311-328.

Slaughter, Richard A.
_nd_ "The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies as an Evolving Process" Futures __(_):__-__, forthcoming.
1991 "Changing Images of Futures in the 20th Century" Futures __(_):499-514.
1990 "The Foresight Principle" Futures __(_):801-819, October.
1989 "Probing Beneath the Surface: Review of a decade's futures work" Futures __(_):447-464, October.
1984 "Towards a Critical Futurism" parts 1,2 ,3 July/August:19-25, Sept/Oct: 11-16, Sept/Oct: 17-21. World Future Society Bulletin

Cultural Constructions of Time and The Future

Lee, Dorothy
1950 "Lineal and Nonlineal Codifications of Reality" Psychosomatic Medicine XII, Mar/Apr 89-97.
one of the earliest articles to address cross-cultural differences in the experience/ construction of time and the future

LeShan, Lawrence
1976 "The General Classes of Realities", Chapt VIII, pp 70-98, in Alternative Realities. New York: Ballentine Books.
The premises of four worldviews -sensory, clairvoyant, transpsychic and mythic- including their constructions of time and the future are described and contrasted.

Levine, Robert V.
1990 "The Pace of Life" American Scientist 78(5):450-459.

Mann, Harriet, Mariam Siegler, and Humphry Osmond 1972 "Four Types of Personalities and Four Ways of Perceiving Time" Psychology Today __(__):78-84.
describes associations between the Jungian (also Meyers-Briggs, Kersey-Bates) temperment types and personal experience/ construction of time; see also: 'The Future of Time: Man's Temporal Environment', 1971 Humphry Osmond, Henri Yaker, Frances Cheek, Editors. Garden City, NY: Doubleday & Company, Inc.

Maruyama, Magoroh
1977 "Heterogenistics: An Epistomological Restructuring of Biological and Social Sciences" Cybernetica 20(1):69-86.
Comparison of five alternative worldviews including their constructions of time and the future.

McKeown, C. Timothy
1986 "Tomorrow's Time: The Cultural Basis of Prediction" Futures __(_):__-__; (ms. Doctoral Qualifying paper, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

Munn, Nancy D. 1992 "The Cultural Anthropology of Time: a critical essay" Annual Review of Anthropology 21:93-123.

Rifkin, Jeremy
1987 Time Wars: The Primary Conflict in Human History. New York: Henry Holt and Co.
Critique of the evolution of the management of time in the West with outstanding 13 pp. bibliography, and introduction of the notion of the emerging "nano-second culture" paced by the tempo of the computer. (See Valero / Bibs & Reviews below.)

Rubenstein, Carin
1982 "Regional States of Mind: patterns of emotional life in nine parts of America" Psychology Today __(__):22-30, February.
provides a 'worldview' companion to Garreau's Nine Nations of North America

Schaeffer, Robert K.
1982 "The Standardization of Time and Space" Chapt 3, 69-90, Edward Friedman, Ed. Ascent and Decline in the World-System. Vol 5 Political Economy of the World System Annuals. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.

Trommsdorff, G. and H. Lamm
1975 "An Analysis of Future Orientation and Some of its Social Determinants" _???_ __(__)::343-361

The Field & The Futurists

19__ "The Futures Field" parts 1,2,3, The Futurist .........

Beckwith, Burnham P.
1984 Ideas About the Future: A History of Futurism. Palo Alto CA: B. P. Beckwith.
Systematic review of contributions of twenty-five futurists, from Condercet and Enlightenment colleagues up to Toffler, Naisbitt, O'Neill and Berry.

Coates, Jos. A. and Jennifer Jerratt Eds.
1989 What Futurists Believe. Mt. Airy, MD: Lemond Publications.
A unique comparative study: perspectives of 17 futurists assessed in regard to corporate orientation and scope, global, sociopolitical and techological emphasis, time horizon and optimism/ pessimism, their intellectual ancestry and other dimensions.

Marien, Michael and Lane Jennings Eds.
1987 What I have Learned: Thinking About the Future Then and Now. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.
Sixteen futurists reflect on the development and changes in the futures field over the past twenty years.

Markley, O. W.
1983 "Preparing for the Professional Futures Field: Observations from the UHCLC futures program" Futures ___:(_):47-64, February.

Toffler, Alvin, Editor 1972 The Futurists. New York: Random House.
Toffler profiles 23 futurists as social critics, scientists, and philosophers and planners.

Research Methods

Didsbury, Howard F., Jr.
1979 ""Probing the Future"*: Futurist Forecasts Reexamined" 14-25 in Howard F. Didsbury, Jr. Editor. Student Handbook for The Study of The Future . Washington, DC: World Future Society.

Hackett, General Sir John, et al.
1982 The Third World War: The Untold Story. New York: Macmillan Publishing Co., Inc.
1979 The Third World War: August 1985. New York: Macmillan Publishing Co., Inc.

Helmer, Olaf
1983 Looking Forward: A Guide to Futures Research. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.
In depth consideration of Delphi polling by its inventor of cross-impact analysis and quantitative methods in futures research, as well as theory, criticism and prospects.

Kropp, Fredric
1994 "Round One Summary: A Delphi Study of Changing Values in the United States, in the Year 2020". Eugene, OR, University of Oregon: Fred Kropp.

Martino, Joseph P.
1979 "Methods of Forecasting" Chapt 3, pp 27-41 in Howard F. Didsbury, Jr. Editor. Student Handbook for The Study of The Future . Washington, DC: World Future Society.

McKeown, C. Timothy
1988 The Futures of Science: Young Scientists at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Doctoral Dissertation, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.
An independent invention of ethnographic futures research method used in conjunction with a standardized instruments (Rotter's internal/ external control scale) applied to international sample of young scientists.

McMillin, Kevin L.
1992 Social and Technological Futures for Education (Final Round). New Franklini, MO: New Franklin R-1 school District.
This 46pp monograph presents the 44 Scenario/ Forecast instrument of a Delphi survey.

Modis, Theodore
1992 Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Preveals the Past and Forecasts the Future. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Behind a terrible title, Modis applies growth curves in explanation and prediction of societal phenomena, emphasizing the introduction and diffusion to saturation of successive technologies.

Morrison, James L., William L. Renfro, Wayne I Boucher, Editors
1984 Futures Research and the Strategic Planning Process: Implications for Higher Education. Washington, DC: Association for the Study of Higher Education.
1983 Applying Methods and Techniques of Futures Research. New Directions for Institutional Research, #39 San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Inc.
Environmental scanning, issues management, applications of forecasts and scenarios, and a variety of group processing/ brainstorming techniques. Two must volumes for the practitioner.

Riner, Reed D.
1991 "From Description to Design: Ethnographic Futures Research Methods Applied to Small Town Revitalization and Economic Development" Futures Research Quarterly 7(1):17-30, Spring.
1988 "Two Roads Diverged in the Yellow Wood of Incrementalism" City and Society 2(1):19-23.

Taylor, Charles W.
1993 Alternative World Scenarios for A New Order of Nations. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S.Army War College.
1992 A World 2010: A New Order of Nations. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S.Army War College.
1988 Alternative World Scenarios for Strategic Planning. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S.Army War College.
1990 Creating Strategic Visions. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S.Army War College.
a systematic and replicable method for developing sets of scenarios, developed over many years teaching strategic planning in the US Army War College, and informed by analysis of Meyers-Briggs temperment-type inventories administered to all classes (1990:5-6).

Textor, Robert
1980 A Handbook of Ethnographic Futures Research, Third Edition: Version A. Department of Anthropology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA.
The introduction to the exemplary kind of qualitative research method.

Textor, Robert B., M.L. Bhansoon Labavalya, S. Prabudhanitisarn
1984 Alternative Sociocultural Futures for Thailand: A Pilot Inquiry Among Academics. Chiang Mai, Thailand: Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University. (see also: Ketudat, S.)

• Comprehensive
• Epistomology
• Cultural Constructions of Time and The Future
• The Field & The Futurists
• Research Methods
• Forecasts
• The Global System
• World System Theories
• Education and Science Fiction
• Bibliographies and Reviews
• Unclassified

This page is maintained by:

Reed D. Riner, Professor, Department of Anthropology
email: Reed.Riner@NAU.edu

last updated on 10 August 1997