Forecasting

BA501 : The Class : POM : Forecast
Forecasting

Forecasting involves predicting future events. Forecasting, as the name implies, is not certain. Forecasts are based on historical data and/or personal judgement. This lesson will focus on creating forecasts from historical data. So, if a forecast is essentially a "guess", why are they necessary? Forecasts are required in the daily activities of an organization in order to guide them into the future.

Objectives:

The objectives for this lesson are as follows:

1. Define key concepts in forecasting.
2. Define the two different types of forecasts.
3. Generate a Last Period Demand forecast.
4. Generate a Moving Average forecast.
5. Generate a Weighted Moving Average forecast.
6. Generate an Exponentially Smoothed forecast.
7. Generate a Seasonally Adjusted forecast without trend.
8. Use Linear Regression to generate a forecast.
9. Calculate the Forecast Error between two forecasts.

Thought for Today

Use Virtual Conference Center to post questions to help each other solve problems and do assignments. Click on the Communications button above for instructions on your username and password. See the

class calendar for announcements and assignments.

To complete this Topic successfully, please complete the following activities in the order shown below:

Text TEXTBOOK READING : Chapter 5 Heizer and Render

ON-LINE LESSON: Forecasting: Introduction and Examples

ASSIGNMENT: Home Work

Look here before beginning quiz if using a telephone modem.

SELF TEST: Practice Quiz

The following is the Operations Management Site for the Heizer/Render text book. Explore the site.

WEB ACTIVITY: Prentice Hall

Use WebMail to send attachments and/or messages. Put BA501 (last name) Assignment name and number somewhere in the "subject" line of your e-mail. Address to BA501@mail.cba.nau.edu

WEBMAIL: WebMail

Login using the spaces to give your e-mail address (DANA account only) and password. Take the both multiple choice exams associated with each chapter. E-mail the results to yourself (but not me). These exams are found on the web site for the textbook under "Study Guide" for each chapter. Click here to continue.

Once you have completed these activities you should:

Go on to Production and Planning
or
Go back to Production Operation Management

Please reference "BA501 (your last name) Assignment name and number" in the subject line of either below.

E-mail Dr. Rakesh Pangasa at BA501@mail.cba.nau.edu
or call (928) 344-7588. Use WebMail for attachments.